Miles 0-13: 12:30-12:40 pace
Miles 14-20: 12:20-12:30 pace
Miles 20-26.2: 12:00-12:30 pace
I honestly think these paces are doable, but my biggest concern is actually being able to get faster in the last half of the race; I need to be mentally strong enough to ignore my achey legs at the end! If I successfully keep to the higher end of the spectrum for each set of miles, I'll finish in 5:17, which would be a 24-minute PR. It's not as lofty a goal as I originally set, but I think based on my training, it's realistic.
Last Wednesday, I started at a conservative pace and then ran faster as I warmed up. During the hardest part of that run (when I was running into the headwind on the second loop), I was running a 12:07 pace from miles 11 to 17, and it didn't feel too bad. At times, I dipped into the 11s, and even the 10s.
Anyway, I'm not aiming for a sub-5 this time around. My plan for 2016 is still to focus on speed and shorter distances, but I know a longterm goal for myself will be to break 5:00, and I know I'll be able to do it eventually. It won't be this race, and that's okay; running is a lifetime journey, and I know I'll get there in due time.
(During a long run this fall, I envisioned myself crossing the finish line in 4:59 and I got choked up just thinking about it. I'm not giving up on that goal, but realistically it's not in the cards this year.)
This year, I want to be smart and consistent. Last year, I went out way too fast. I was also dehydrated from cold medicines and had lingering asthma issues to contend with, but I'm not making excuses. I know this year I'm in better shape, but it's also going to be warmer.
(This year's 20-miler was 10 degrees warmer than last year's...so, yeah.)
So basically, I'm aiming for a PR, but I've finally learned that I won't get faster training for a marathon without a better base and stronger effort geared directly at speed. Cautiously optimistic is the name of the game this time around.
I decide exactly how you do- based on my training runs! Sometimes I wonder how people set pace goals for themselves which are like 30 seconds faster per mile than all of their training runs. It doesn't make sense to me. Okay sure, there is race day adrenaline... but adrenaline isn't going to carry you 26 miles. I figure I'm going to run the race I trained for- if I'm lucky! You just inspired me to think very long and hard about my race plan for BDR. This will give me something to ponder on my run this morning! Hey don't forget to put on your lipstick today so you don't confuse your kiddos!
ReplyDeleteI swear, the people who do 90% of their runs really slow and then bust it out on race day are amazing. I have no idea how that actually works. I tend to train and race at the same pace for shorter races. I know that's not the "right" way to train but it's just what happens!
DeleteI remembered the lipstick lol!
It seems like you've put a lot of thought into this. Deferring big goals can be hard, but they are always there for you in the future. I think a negative-split marathon is actually a pretty smart plan as long as you can hold back in the first half and fight through the pain in the second. Personally, I'm not sure I can tell the difference, pain-wise, in moving slightly faster during the last few miles of a marathon, so I figure I might as well push through ;-)
ReplyDeleteI tend to set my race goals pretty far in advance and then re-evaluate closer to race day and make a plan at that time. Like you, I can go faster after I've warmed up, so I tend to plan on negative splits. Of course, it doesn't always work out that way!
I remember feeling like my running was so slow, like I was in pudding, at the end of the marathon last year. So I want to negative-split the race, but I have no idea if I'll realistically be able to! Last year I went out WAY too fast, so I feel like maybe starting nice and slow will help.
DeleteSounds like a great plan! Looking forward to hearing all about it after!
ReplyDelete:)
DeleteLooking forward to hearing how your marathon goes! It looks like you have a very smart plan, you got this! Your 20 miler went really well so I'm sure you'll do great on race day :)
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling really excited! It will all come down to the last 10k!
DeleteI think it is very smart of you to make a specific pace plan for the marathon. This is what I did for my marathon this year, and although I didn't stick to it perfectly, it was enormously helpful for me in reining in my energy in the beginning and not starting out too fast. I figured out the pace I'd need for the first few miles and in the days before the race I basically just repeated it to myself over and over, almost to the point of obsession. It worked, though - sure enough, I stuck to that pace in the first few miles. And I ended up running negative split and speeding up at the end with my last mile as the fastest. Running a good marathon requires you to be a lot more tactical than you have to be in shorter distances, and I've found that even though I still have to be flexible on race day, having a solid plan for the race increases my odds of success, whether that be a goal time or just having a strong finish.
ReplyDeleteI had to smile when I read your sentence about envisioning yourself crossing the finish line in 4:59 and getting choked up. I do this same thing on some of my runs, envisioning the clock showing a surprise BQ time or something as I near the finish and I get a little choked up imagining how it will feel. It won't be this next race or even this next year but like you, I know I can do it one day. It will happen when it's ready.
I like knowing that running is a lifelong endeavor for me, so I can postpone my big goals. They keep me going, but I have time to work myself up there.
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